Quant explains why the peak of the Bitcoin cycle has not yet arrived


Bitcoin price peak is yet to be reached if the pattern of past bull cycles carries weight, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.

Bitcoin could hit a new ATH in this cycle

According to a CryptoQuant article, it is possible that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of the cycle and that a new all-time high (ATH) will be reached soon.

There are two ways to define a cycle. The first is to make the initial point halving the BTC. Here’s a chart that shows how the coin’s price has evolved during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 bull cycles based on this benchmark:

Price vs the number of days after halving in the various bull cycles

As the chart above shows, the 2012 Bitcoin run showed a peak early in the cycle, then hit a bigger one later. It took 371 days to reach this second peak.

Next is the 2016 BTC cycle which also followed a similar pattern of a peak before the cycle peak. The highest price was not reached until 555 days after the start of the cycle.

Related reading | Data shows almost 90% of Bitcoin has been mined, here’s how long it will take to mine the rest

Finally, there is the current BTC 2020 cycle. If the cycles do indeed follow a pattern, then the last ATH was the first peak of the cycle, and therefore the cryptocurrency could reach a new ATH towards the end of the cycle.

As Bitcoin cycles seem to be getting longer, this one will not come to an end until after at least 555 days. Currently, the cycle is 450 days.

The second way to define a bull cycle is to take the starting point as the price breaking the last ATH. Based on this idea, the chart below shows the different cycle peaks:

Bitcoin Tops

The 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull cycle tops

As shown in the graph above, all of these cycles seem to follow a similar pattern where the peak is reached between 283 and 337 days after the start of the race.

Related reading | As Bitcoin surpasses $ 50,000, indicators show calm before storm

If this trend is the most accurate, then the current BTC high should be hit early enough as the cycle is currently 262 days, meaning a new ATH could be hit as early as 21 days later.

BTC price

Bitcoin’s price has finally gained ground above the $ 50,000 level as its value hovers around $ 51.2,000 at the time of writing. The coin’s price has risen 7% over the past 7 days, while the gains last month are around 18%.

Here is a chart showing the coin’s price trend over the past three months:

Bitcoin Price Table

Bitcoin's price continues to move up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com


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