Implications for UK nuclear deterrence within the occasion of EU failure



For the reason that momentous vote of 23 June 2016 that triggered the UK’s lengthy strategy of leaving the European Union, the specter of Scotland’s secession from the UK has resurrected time and time once more. The response to the COVID pandemic has weakened, not strengthened, the ties that bind the Union, and the way and particulars of the ultimate EU exit deal have additional exacerbated the variations between Scotland and England .

The submarine ballistic missile base and a lot of the UK’s impartial nuclear deterrence operational assist services are based mostly on Scottish soil or in Scottish inland and territorial seas. A Scottish secession would subsequently create basic operational and financial issues for the nuclear deterrent of the UK. The adjustments in UK nuclear coverage introduced within the 2021 Built-in Evaluate have additional moved UK coverage away from the rules of the Scottish Nationwide Social gathering, growing the chance of secession. This is able to have a major impression on the UK’s skill to place in place a submarine-based deterrent.

This text by Rear Admiral John Gower CB OBE examines the deterrence points arising from a future Scottish secession and its doubtless need for subsequent impartial membership within the EU and NATO. He analyzes the choices that might then be confronted by each the UK and its shut allies in NATO.

The doc suggests {that a} full and frank debate on the impression of Scottish secession on UK nuclear deterrence is required to keep away from a major destructive downstream impact on Euro-Atlantic safety.

Bringing these themes collectively, the doc suggests {that a} full and frank debate on the impression of Scottish secession on UK nuclear deterrence is required to keep away from a major destructive downstream impact on Euro-Atlantic safety. The doc additional instructs NATO nations to reaffirm the necessity for British nuclear deterrence for Alliance safety, as repeatedly emphasised in summit communiques over the previous decade and past. NATO also needs to make it clear that if an impartial Scotland adopts insurance policies that critically undermine or take away nuclear deterrence which is an important a part of Alliance safety, this might on the very least current a significant impediment to EU membership. NATO and will very properly make it unattainable. for a future impartial Scotland.

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The opinions expressed above symbolize the views of the authors and don’t essentially mirror the place of the European Management Community or any of its members. The aim of the ELN is to encourage debates that may assist develop Europe’s capability to fulfill the pressing overseas, protection and safety coverage challenges of our time.

Picture: Flickr, bob le lomond



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